Nate Silver said this about playing poker, “I got out in 2007 when the games got a lot tighter.” Napoleon Bonaparte biographer Paul Johnson wondered what would have happened if the little emperor had taken the fight to the America’s rather than Europe. Nate Silver's Baseball Prospectus article archive (2003–2009) Nate Silver's The Burrito Bracket (2007) Other publications. Nate Silver, 'The Most Livable Neighborhoods in New York: A Quantitative Index of the 50 Most Satisfying Places to Live', New York, April 11, 2010. Nate Silver, 'The Influence Index', Time, April 29, 2010.

There may not be anyone with more at stake — outside of the candidates — in the upcoming US presidential election than Nate Silver. The former online poker pro, who now runs the FiveThirtyEight. Nate Silver: Poker is a Good Skill to Have The 35 year old has actually been itching to get back into poker and so when Crown Casino asked if he’d be interested in playing the 2013 Aussie Millions he jumped at the opportunity. The 2013 Aussie Millions.

Have been hearing a lot of folks in the poker world noting with varying degrees of surprise that Nate Silver -- the statistician and analyst who received a lot of attention for his uncannily correct predictions regarding the 2012 presidential election -- is in fact a poker player.

I was vaguely aware of Silver following the 2008 election, having read a couple of articles reporting that his predictions that year had proven accurate. But I admit I didn’t really start paying attention to his “Five Thirty Eight” site (which in 2010 started to be hosted as a blog on the New York Times site) until just after Black Friday, April 2011.

That’s because in the immediate aftermath of Black Friday, Silver wrote what I thought was one of the best and most thorough explanations of what had happened in an article titled “After ‘Black Friday’: American Poker Faces a Cloudy Future.”

The article not only reported on the DOJ’s action (the indictment and civil complaint), but offered a smart overview of the brief history of online poker in the United States. I actually assigned the article to my “Poker in American Film and Culture” class that semester as a way to get them up to speed on what was happening, as Black Friday introduced kind of an unscheduled detour in the syllabus right at the end of the semester.

In the article, Silver mentions his own experience playing online poker, which in a lot of ways mirrored my own. Silver’s best years online came during the “boom” (from 2003-2006), after which he notes how the games became more competitive in the post-UIGEA environment. He even says he earned most of his income playing during those years (never quite the case for me).

I continued to follow Silver’s non-poker writing after that, and thus was aware of all of his different rubrics and methods of compiling poll data as the 2012 election approached. That’s when we started seeing various attacks on Silver being launched by those not in agreement with his consistently maintained position that Barack Obama was very likely to win.

As happened four years ago, Silver’s predictions proved accurate, with Silver correctly forecasting how all 50 states would vote in the presidential race.

Silver has a new book out titled The Signal and the Noise: Why So Many Predictions Fail -- But Some Don’t which I’m interested to read, in part because the book finds Silver returning to writing about online poker in a chapter titled “The Poker Bubble.” There he apparently breaks down and explains the economics behind the “boom” and how so many players -- like himself, and like me -- were able to be winning players online during that 2003-2006 era thanks to the abundance of losing players then among the player pool.

Now everyone’s looking to Silver for his thoughts on, well, anything he wishes to think about. He weighed in on the whole American League MVP debate a couple of days ago, explaining at length how the Los Angeles Angels’ Mike Trout deserved the award over Detroit’s Triple Crown-winning Miguel Cabrera. (Cabrera won.) He also offered thoughts on various topics in an online Q&A this week for Deadspin, including answering a question about the possible legislative future for online poker.

In his response, Silver said his “hunch is that the poker community probably underrates how difficult it is to get ANYTHING done at the federal level, especially in the near term.” However, he’s more optimistic regarding what might happen down the road, thanks to “the intersection of the need for more tax revenues, poker having become increasingly mainstream, [and] better lobbying efforts on behalf of the poker community.”

Silver also adds how “the demographics of poker tend much more toward people who can ‘afford’ to gamble,” a point he presents as an argument in favor of legalizing poker before things like the lottery or other strictly chance-based forms of gambling.

Makes a lot of sense, if you think about it. Of course, when it comes to making sense, Silver’s been pretty much gold of late.

Labels: *the rumble, law, Nate Silver, online poker, politics

Nate Silver quit his $55,000-a-year financial consulting job in April to play poker.

So far it's been a wise career move: The 26-year-old Silver expects to make more than $100,000 this year playing the card game, mainly on the Internet.

Silver belongs to a new generation of poker players who feast on the growing number of novices taking up poker after watching televised contests.

While few players go to the extreme of quitting their jobs, many spend their evenings stalking sites like PartyPoker.com and PokerStars.com, pocketing an extra $20,000 or $30,000 annually on top of their regular salaries.

And as more novices keep appearing, opportunity grows for experienced players.

'You'll see people make terrible plays routinely,' said Silver, who lives in Wrigleyville. 'For the most part these people call too much and play too aggressively.'

Online poker has exploded along with the recent surge of interest in the game.

In January 2003, $11.1 million was wagered on the major poker sites. That number rocketed to $136.1 million last month, according to PokerPulse.com, which tracks activity on 21 of the largest poker sites.

Total gambling at poker sites will easily clear $1 billion this year, based on PokerPulse's figures, which likely undercount total betting since they do not include popular online poker tournaments that charge entry fees.

People trying to bank quick online profits are reminiscent of another recent Internet phenomenon--day traders.

Rather than making rapid-fire stock trades online, these gamblers seek profits by leveraging small advantages with their poker experience, discipline and statistical savvy. While their gains and losses vary widely day to day, experienced players say the odds are heavily in their favor in the long run.

Still, the easy money could quickly disappear if the current poker fad fades.

Mike Kim, who lives in Lincoln Park, said he plays online poker every day, sometimes for a couple of hours and sometimes for 12 hours straight. He said his average winnings are $15,000 a month.

'I had no idea it would become my full-time job,' said Kim, who started playing online nearly a year ago while studying mechanical engineering at the University of Illinois. 'I didn't find a job when I graduated so I just kept playing for money.'

The 23-year-old Kim is no longer looking for a job, although his family is concerned he will lose money.

'At first they didn't like it because they thought I was gambling,' Kim said. 'When I told them how much money I made, they kind of understood I couldn't go back to a regular job.'

Neal Salmen, a 28-year-old Chicago real estate investor who said he has made about $25,000 this year playing online poker, noted the anonymity of Internet games often makes new players more aggressive. In casinos, Salmen said, 'You don't want to look too stupid so people play more conservatively.'

Internet poker offers experienced players some advantages, particularly the ability to play at multiple tables at the same time. Online games generally go faster than casino games, and by playing three or four tables simultaneously, players can easily participate in more than 200 hands an hour.

The main disadvantage of Internet play for poker pros is the inability to 'read' competitors--noticing small ticks and other mannerisms that can reveal if somebody is holding a strong hand or bluffing.

Even at in-person games, pros often have more trouble reading the novices.

'It's hard to read someone if they don't know if they have a good hand,' said Jim Karamanis, a Chicago attorney who plays online and in-person poker recreationally.

Nate Silver Poker Player

Nobody tracks how many people play poker for a living, but the number appears to be growing.

'Certainly at this point there are thousands,' said Greg Raymer, who left his job as a patent attorney at Pfizer Inc. after winning $5 million this year at poker's biggest event, the World Series of Poker.

The lure of Internet poker has intensified since Raymer and the 2003 World Series winner gained entry into the casino events, which were broadcast on ESPN, by winning online tournaments.

To prosper at Internet poker, players must be technically strong and quickly assess the thousands of scenarios that arise--betting aggressively on strong hands and folding when they're in a weak position.

Signing on to EmpirePoker.com late Tuesday afternoon, Silver put $1,000 into his account and folded most hands before the first round of betting, losing his $15 ante. On the first hand he played, Silver lost $170.

'If I lose $170 on a hand, it's nothing,' Silver said. 'You can't let it get to you.'

Silver usually plays on weekday evenings and sometimes stays up until sunrise so he can play against aggressive Scandinavian players.

'My sleep schedule has been terrible recently,' said Silver, who also does work for Baseball Prospectus, which does statistical analysis of baseball games.

Nate Silver Wsop 2019

Silver said he's done much better financially with online poker than he expected, though he and other players acknowledge their profitable poker days may not be long-lived.

Nate Silver Poker Tips

'I'm just trying to ride it out,' said Kim. 'If poker starts dying down, I'm going to have to get a real job.'